The land price of 40 cities fell continuously. In May, the property market cooled down ＂Golden September and Silver 10＂ or the color was insufficient
According to the Report on the Land Market of 40 Cities in August 2018 released by Yiju Real Estate Research Institute on September 3, in August, the construction area of land transactions in 40 typical cities increased slightly from the previous month, and the average land transfer price fell for five consecutive months year-on-year. The premium rate of land transactions hit a 39-month low.
In September, the real estate market in some places was light. What new changes have taken place in the property market recently? What is the color of the traditional "Golden September and Silver 10" property market this year? Accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. What is the future trend of the property market? On the evening of September 5th, CCTV Financial Review invited Liu Weimin, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, and Guo Liyan, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute, to visit the studio for in-depth analysis.
The land price of 40 cities has fallen for five months in a row, and the land market is no longer hot?
Liu Weimin: The market of "Golden September and Silver 10" is still in consolidation.
Liu Weimin, researcher of the State Council Development Research Center: The land premium rate is an important leading indicator for the real estate market. When we say land premium rate, we set a price. If the price that everyone is willing to pay is higher than the pre-set starting price, then the premium rate will naturally arise. Recently, the land premium rate has decreased, including the market price of land is also shrinking month-on-month, which reflects a preliminary judgment on the traditional property market, and it is expected that the "Golden September and Silver 10" in autumn may not be so high in color.
Guo Liyan: Seasonal consumption characteristics are weakening. It is expected that the volume and price of "Golden September and Silver 10" will remain stable.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute: There is a whole chain relationship between land price and house price, and land price has a high driving force in the process of a high upward trend of house price. The land premium rate in some cities is declining, which indicates the change of the market expectation for the future housing price trend. This year’s "Golden September and Silver 10" may be a process in which the quantity and price are stabilizing. Personally, I think the future change of land premium rate may remain in a reasonable range.
Property market cooling "Golden September and Silver 10" color geometry?
Liu Weimin: The deleveraging effect of real estate is gradually emerging.
Liu Weimin, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center: From the perspective of the whole real estate leverage ratio, the effect of deleveraging is gradually emerging. On the one hand, some real estate enterprises are limited in applying for loans from banks, and some developers have tight capital chains. On the other hand, there are also restrictions on speculative housing loans, which will accelerate the deleveraging of the real estate market.
Guo Liyan: The concentration of the real estate industry has improved significantly. Some housing enterprises tend to be cautious in taking land.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute: At present, the market concentration of real estate development enterprises has increased very rapidly. Some small and medium-sized real estate development enterprises are facing the situation of strict supervision and tight capital chain, which will lead some real estate developers to be more cautious in the process of land acquisition, and the pace of land acquisition by real estate enterprises will be slowed down.
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On August 28th, He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that he was determined to solve the problem of the real estate market, adhere to the policy based on the city, promote the balance between supply and demand, reasonably guide expectations, rectify the market order, resolutely curb the rise in housing prices, and accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
At the beginning of August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development pointed out that to promote the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism and strive to achieve the goal of all people living in a house, all localities should earnestly do a good job in regulating the real estate market, adjust measures to local conditions, make precise and comprehensive policies, and implement the main responsibility of local governments to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations to ensure market stability. Resolutely hold accountable the places where the work is ineffective, the market fluctuates greatly, and the regulatory targets are not achieved.
How to go to the future property market without relaxing the control?
Liu Weimin: The supply structure of residential land needs to be further optimized.
Liu Weimin, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center: From the perspective of the structure of land supply, it is indeed necessary to further optimize the structure of land supply according to different supply rhythms. We should comprehensively consider the overall urban planning, population planning, transportation planning, etc., in order to truly connect various factors such as land, housing, population and capital, and form a balance between supply and demand.
Guo Liyan: Structural risks have to be prevented from focusing on debt risks.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute: It is very important to further investigate the debts of small and medium-sized real estate developers in some cities in the future.
Liu Weimin: At present, we still need to pay attention to expected management in regulation and control.
Liu Weimin, researcher of the State Council Development Research Center: At present, we should pay attention to expected management. For example, for the land market, we should further optimize the supply structure of land, and at the same time let everyone see what products the city will supply in the next year or two, and what kind of supply it will be, so that everyone can stabilize the property market expectations with a clear idea.
Guo Liyan: The coordination of regulation and supervision has made great efforts on high quality, precision and long-term effectiveness.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute: To stabilize the real estate market and promote stable and healthy development, I think regulation and supervision should be coordinated and coordinated, and efforts should be made to be efficient, accurate and long-term. Regulation is a macro-control level, and regulation includes micro-market players. For different cities, in the process of forming a market system to divert land prices and housing prices, we must do a good job of precise policy and precise efforts. In addition, it is necessary to establish a high-quality, accurate and long-term institutional linkage guarantee system and make efforts to supply-side reform.